Logical-and-probabilistic methods of modeling mine accident scenarios

The article necessitates the coal mine safety analysis including and integrating the standard operating environment of the mines, as well as external impacts and errors of personnel in the course of mining and automation and control equipment operation. The correlation ofthe causes of accidents and sources of hazards (SH) is illustrated. The methods of the mine safety analysis capable to disclose the most hazardous causes and conditions of mine accidents are reviewed. In mines, despite extremely low but nonzero probability, accidents nevertheless happen because of high probability density of rare hazardous situations with heavy consequences and after-effects. It is proved to be expedient to use the logical-and-probabilistic methods for modeling scenarios of possible accidents which are interpreted using the causeand-effect diagrams of event chains. Based on the frequency rating of the contingency events in coal mining, it is validated to change from the weights of different triggering conditions to their contribution to accident events. The developed simulation models of decision-making in the real-time and sapid analysis of accident events include the valuation of the weights and contributions of geological / geotechnical factors and personnel errors in the risks of methane explosions, fires and gas contamination in mines in case of gas drainage failure.

Kupriyanov V. V., Bondarenko I. S. Logical-and-probabilistic methods of modeling mine accident scenarios. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2023;(7):114-131. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2023_7_0_114.

V.V. Kupriyanov¹, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor, e-mail: Kupriyanov.VV@misis.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0003-3793-8361,
I.S. Bondarenko¹, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Assistant Professor, e-mail: i.bondarenko@misis.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-4160-8413,
¹ National University of Science and Technology «MISiS», 119049, Moscow, Russia.

I.S. Bondarenko, e-mail: i.bondarenko@misis.ru.

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