Testing of seismic activity prediction method at the Upper Kama Potash Deposit

Commercial production of potash at the Upper Kama deposit started in 1934. On January 5, 1995 an induced earthquake took place in that area, with the source site in the northeast of Solikamsk 2 mine field. The incident motivated initiation of seismic monitoring in the local mines. The data of seismic monitoring for more than 20 years show that the time-space variations in seismicity are connected with the geotechnical parameters of mining. This article describes a multi-factor prediction model which characterizes effects of mining operations and the induced seismic activity. Parametrization of the mathematical model uses new, previously left aside statistics on Solikamsk 2 Mine between 2018 and 2021. Mapping of the actual and model seismic energy release is carried out for 2019. The comparison of the mapping data shows a coincidence of the zones of the increased seismic energy emission. The smoothed seismic field provides the best correlation, while the correlation factor of the raster patterns reaches 0.46. Furthermore, the prediction modeling was undertaken as a case-study of an operating mine at the Upper Kama deposit for 2022. Finally, the proposed multi-factor model has proved its appropriateness for the seismic activity prediction in potassium mines.

Zlobina T. V., Dyagilev R. A. Testing of seismic activity prediction method at the Upper Kama Potash Deposit. MIAB. Mining Inf. Anal. Bull. 2022;(4):56-66. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.25018/0236_1493_2022_4_0_56.

The study was supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation in the framework of State Contract No. 075-03-2021-374 dated December 29, 2020.

T.V. Zlobina, Engineer, Mining Institute of Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 614007, Perm, Russia, e-mail: tati.verkholantseva@gmail.com, ORCID ID: 0000-0002-2626-6355,
R.A. Dyagilev, Deputy Director on Scientific Work, Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences, 249035, Obninsk, Russia, e-mail: dra@gsras.ru, ORCID ID: 0000-0001-5974-5611.

T.V. Zlobina, e-mail: tati.verkholantseva@gmail.com.

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