Backcasting of geotechnical conditions at deep levels of the Oleniy Ruchey deposit

Collected in the course of mineral mining, the datasets on the conditions and experience of operation contain the highest-value information which is never used to the full extent. In the meanwhile, this information is usable to analyze efficiency of made decisions and to predict operating conditions in promising mineral sites, which is particularly important when mining is advanced to deeper levels. The article proposes the method of backcasting to predict and ensure the wanted geotechnical conditions and safety of deep-level mining. The method includes comprehensive examination of current geotechnical conditions and systematizes information with the patterning of changes in factors of interest, which allows planning of mining operations and control over mining technology with its prompt adjustment and addition with extra safety measures. The proposed method is discussed in terms of the Oleniy Ruchey deposit where it is required to maintain the design heading rate at the preserved safety in the conditions of high-stress rock mass. Using the backcasting results, the variants of adjustment of the current mining technology per years are proposed, which enable maintenance of the current heading rate. The proposed method makes it possible to enhance performance of the test mine both in terms of safety and economy.

V.Yu. Sinegubov, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Deputy General Director for Scientific Work, Geotechnical Bureau, 199155, Saint-Petersburg, Russia,

1. Chen L., Wang L., Miao J., Gao H., Zhang Y., Yao Y., Bai M., Mei L., He J. Review of the application of big data and artificial intelligence in geology. Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 2020, vol. 1684, no. 1, article 012007. DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1684/1/012007.

2. Zhang Q., Liu Xu Big data: new methods and ideas in geological scientific research. Big Earth Data. 2019, vol. 3, no. 3, article 1564478. DOI: 10.1080/20964471.2018.1564478.

3. Machnev A. V. The technique of retrospective analysis is an elementary tool for preliminary substantiation of complex systems. Innovative science. 2021, no. 12-2, pp. 41—44. [In Russ].

4. Savenkov L. D. The evolution of the backcasting method: semantic cluster analysis and its role in the sustainable development of industry. Economic sciences. 2024, no. 235, pp. 192—197. DOI: 10. 14451/1.235.192. [In Russ].

5. Evgrafova L. V., Doroshev D. D. Foresight: from forecasting to shaping the future of Primorsky Krai. Business and Design Review. 2022, vol. 3, no. 27, pp. 10—20. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.56565/ 25419951_2022_3_10.

6. Shen B., Duan Y., Luo Xun, Werken M., Dlamini B., Chen L., Vardar O., Canbulat I. Monitoring and modelling stress state near major geological structures in an underground coal mine for coal burst assessment. International Journal of Rock Mechanics & Mining Sciences. 2020, vol. 129, article 104294. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijrmms.2020.104294.

7. Lu R., Ma F., Zhao J., Wang J., Li G., Dai B. Monitoring and analysis of stress and deformation features of boundary part of backfill in metal mine. Sustainability. 2020, vol. 12, article 733. DOI: 10.3390/su12020733.

8. Han Z., Wang Ch., Wang Ch., Jiao Yu., Wang Y., Wang J., Huang X. Determination of geo—stress in deep strata incorporating borehole diametral deformation measurement and overcoring. Measurement. 2023, vol. 218, article 113217. DOI: 10.1016/j.measurement.2023.113217.

9. Trufanov A. N. Using the linear interpolation method to determine the parameters of the natural stress state of weakly filtering soils. Bulletin of the Scientific Research Center «Construction». 2020, vol. 3, no. 26, pp. 93—104. [In Russ].

10. Freidin A. M., Neverov S. A. Neverov A. A. The initial stress field in rock formations and its change with increasing depth. Mining sciences: fundamental and applied issues. 2014, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 328—336. [In Russ].

11. Jendrys M., Duzy S., Dyduch G. Analysis of stress-strain states in the vicinity of mining excavations in a rock mass with variable mechanical properties. Energies. 2020, vol. 13, article 5567. DOI: 10.3390/en13215567.

12. Taherynia M. H., Aghda S. M. F., Fahimifar A. In-situ stress state and tectonic regime in different depths of earth crust. Geotechnical Geological Engineering. 2016, vol. 34, pp. 679—687. DOI: 10.1007/s10706-016-9978-9.

13. Neverov S. A. Typification of ore deposits with increasing depth by the type of stress state. Part I: Modern concepts of the stress state of rock massifs with increasing depth. Fiziko-tekhnicheskie problemy razrabotki poleznykh iskopaemykh. 2012, no. 2, pp. 56—69. [In Russ].

14. Neverov S. A. Typification of ore deposits with increasing depth by type of stress state Part II. Tectonotypes of ore deposits and models of the geological environment. Fiziko-tekhnicheskie problemy razrabotki poleznykh iskopaemykh. 2012, no. 3, pp. 25—34. [In Russ].

15. Ismoilova M. N., Imomova Sh. M. Function interpolation. Bulletin of Science and Education. 2020, no. 3-3 (81). [In Russ].

16. Essanhaji A., Errachid M. Lagrange multivariate polynomial interpolation: A random algorithmic approach. Journal of Applied Mathematics. 2022, vol. 2022, article 8227086. DOI: 10.1155/ 2022/8227086.

17. Ishizaka H., Kobayashi K., Tsuchiya T. General theory of interpolation error estimates on anisotropic meshes. Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics. 2021, vol. 38, pp. 163—191. DOI: 10.1007/s13160-020-00433-z.

18. Protosenya A. G., Belyakov N. A., Buslova M. A. Modeling of the stress-strain state of a block rock mass of ore deposits during development by mining systems with collapse. Journal of Mining Institute. 2023, vol. 262, pp. 619—627. [In Russ].

19. Mansurova Yu. O. Extrapolation as a method of forecasting data. Innovations. Science. Education. 2021, no. 39, pp. 97—98. [In Russ].

20. Jendrys M., Duzy S., Dyduch G. Analysis of stress-strain states in the vicinity of mining excavations in a rock mass with variable mechanical properties. Energies. 2020, vol. 13, article 5567. DOI: 10.3390/en13215567.

21. Vilner M. A., Streshnev A. A., Onuprienko V. S. A comprehensive study of the stress-strain state of the rear sight during the development of apatite-nepheline deposits by a system of substory collapse. Gornyi Zhurnal. 2023, no. 5, pp. 80—87. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.17580/gzh.2023.05.12.

22. Novokreschennykh D. V. Determination and forecasting of the tectonic component of mountain pressure for deposits of the Timan-Pechora oil and gas province. Oilfield Engineering. 2024, no. 2(662), pp. 17—20. [In Russ].

23. Mirzekhanova Z. G., Mirzekhanov G. S., Litvintsev V. S. A retrospective analysis of the formation of resource and environmental problems during the development of placer gold deposits. Russian Journal of Pacific geology. 2016, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 94—106. [In Russ].

24. Radebe N., Chipangamate N. Mining industry risks, and future critical minerals and metals supply chain resilience in emerging markets. Resources Policy. 2024, vol. 91, article 104887. DOI: 10. 1016/j.resourpol.2024.104887.

25. Tubis A., Werbińska-Wojciechowska S., Wroblewski A. Risk assessment methods in mining industry — A systematic review. Applied Science. 2020, vol. 10, no. 15, article 5172. DOI: 10.3390/ app10155172.

26. Kozyrev A. A., Savchenko S. N., Panin V. I., Semenova I. E., Rybin V. V., Fedotova Yu. V., Kozyrev S. A. Geomekhanicheskie protsessy v geologicheskoy srede gornotekhnicheskikh sistem i upravlenie geodinamicheskimi riskami: monografiya [Geomechanical processes in the geological environment of mining engineering systems and geodynamic risk management: monograph], Apatity, 2019, 431 p. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.37614/978.5.91137.391.7.

27. Semenova I. E., Avetisyan I. M. Development of the concept of geomechanical substantiation of mining operations in hazardous conditions. Gornyi Zhurnal. 2022, no. 1. [In Russ]. DOI: 10.17580/ gzh.2022.01.05.